{"id":14736,"date":"2022-08-09T15:00:17","date_gmt":"2022-08-09T13:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/?p=14736"},"modified":"2024-06-27T11:05:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T09:05:13","slug":"forecasting-machine-learning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/blog\/forecasting-machine-learning\/","title":{"rendered":"How to make a next step in forecasting with machine learning"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><strong>\u2018<\/strong><strong>Driver-based forecasting\u2019 with machine learning<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14737 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/magnafying-glass-graph.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"145\" height=\"145\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Data is everywhere in today\u2019s world. Every single event in your supply chain generates data, and the opportunities to utilize all that data seem endless. At the same time, there are many tools and technologies out there claiming to solve all your data problems. No wonder many professionals feel overwhelmed!<\/p>\n<p>Which key opportunity can you unlock by using your data better? Reducing latency! Quicker data collection, better dashboards, and suitable tools help you get the right information on the right person\u2019s desk at the right time \u2013 effectively reducing the delay from event to decision, and thereby dramatically increasing the impact of your decisions. Machine learning can help.<\/p>\n<p>Results from a benchmark conducted by EyeOn in 2021 show that:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>companies are most eager to start applying machine learning in the area of demand forecasting<\/li>\n<li>only 10% are actually doing this at that moment.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14743 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-forecast-models-used-300x141.png\" alt=\"machine learning models used in forecasting\" width=\"640\" height=\"301\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-forecast-models-used-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-forecast-models-used-768x361.png 768w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-forecast-models-used.png 940w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>While the goal for each company is straightforward &#8211; trying to improve forecast performance with less effort spent by demand planning, sales, and marketing altogether &#8211; there is no one-size-fits-all solution that can do the job.<\/p>\n<p>Do you want to improve your forecast performance and accelerate decision-making in the supply chain? Watch our video on driver-based forecasting!<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/594641310\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>What is driver-based forecasting?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Let\u2019s start from the core. Why do companies want to apply machine learning? This is because traditional forecasting methods, such as time series forecasting, do not take into account impactful demand drivers. In many industries, there are additional drivers that have a far greater effect on demand than for example seasonality.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14741 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-what-is-dbf-300x156.png\" alt=\"in which situations does machine learning benefit forecasting?\" width=\"639\" height=\"332\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-what-is-dbf-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-what-is-dbf-768x398.png 768w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-what-is-dbf.png 868w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In machine learning models we incorporate data that relates to these demand drivers, with the aim to learn from their impact in the past in order to reflect this in the forecast. Depending on the industry, internal or external (market) drivers are more relevant to the forecast. In general, internal drivers often have a focused impact on forecasting, such as planning a promotion for a certain range of products at a specific customer or introducing a new product to your biggest customer.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14742 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-external-drivers-300x118.png\" alt=\"demand drivers necessary for applying machine learning in forecasting\" width=\"638\" height=\"251\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-external-drivers-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-external-drivers-768x301.png 768w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-external-drivers.png 916w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Creating a value-adding machine learning model takes effort and time but can really have a big impact on your forecasting performance. Two of our projects have shown that by applying driver-based forecasting the final forecast (including all manual input from sales and marketing) can be improved by even 12%pt of forecast accuracy and can bring bias within the 2% bandwidth. Another big advantage is that since the most important known demand drivers are already taken into account, only exceptional changes are needed to come to a final forecast.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14739 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-machine-learning-300x134.png\" alt=\"comparing time series forecasting with machine learning forecasting\" width=\"640\" height=\"286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-machine-learning-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-machine-learning-768x344.png 768w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-machine-learning.png 934w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>How to start applying machine learning in forecasting?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>As mentioned in the introduction, it is not easy to start <a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/expertise\/demand-forecasting\/\">applying machine learning in demand forecasting<\/a> in a proper way. Tooling and knowledge are the biggest hurdles that companies face.<\/p>\n<p>IT departments often have a long-term IT roadmap and need to see how applying machine learning in demand planning would fit in there. On the other side people currently involved in the demand planning process often do not have the technical capabilities to build a small proof-of-concept themselves.<\/p>\n<p>Surprisingly, most companies do not think that the quality and availability of their data should be a roadblock. Let\u2019s take the example of a company, with access to suitable tooling, people with the right skill set, and high-quality data available, then still there is another hurdle to overcome and that is the question of what it will bring? Preparing a proper business case is crucial.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14738 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-how-to-start-300x94.png\" alt=\"Requirements for applying machine learning in forecasting\" width=\"638\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-how-to-start-300x94.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-how-to-start-768x242.png 768w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-how-to-start.png 940w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Luckily, that is something where EyeOn can be of help. We can build a <strong>proof-of-concept<\/strong> in a very short amount of time. Our data scientists build and apply machine learning models in a very pragmatic and robust way. The proof-of-concept offers you:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Quick insights into the value of demand drivers on the forecastability of your business<\/li>\n<li>The maximum forecast performance that can be reached by using driver-based forecasting<\/li>\n<li>A quantified improvement potential versus current forecasting methods (in efficiency and effectiveness)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The proof-of-concept shows great potential and you would like to grasp the benefits immediately? Our <a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanningservices.nl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Planning Services<\/a> team is ready to build and operate your driver-based forecasting process from the start. In the meantime you can work on getting tooling and knowledge to the required level, so we can transfer the operation back to your internal organization.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14740 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-process-300x154.png\" alt=\"Tooling, knowledge and business cases needed for applying machine learning in forecasting\" width=\"639\" height=\"328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-process-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-process-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dbf-process.png 870w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In this video we further explain the EyeOn driver-based forecasting proof-of-concept:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/699322854?h=1fe97d4b30\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>We are here for you<\/strong><strong>!<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Do you want to improve your forecast performance? <span class=\"TextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">At\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW13943841 BCX8\">EyeOn<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">,\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">we\u2019ve<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0developed the Fast Forecast Scan: a quick tool\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">that <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">provide<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">s you with<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0rapid insights into<\/span><\/span><span class=\"TextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">the\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">demand characteristics<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed SCXW13943841 BCX8\">forecastability<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0of your business<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">.<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">As a first step, we <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">perform\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">a<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0thorough<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">deep dive<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\"> into your data and\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">provide<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0actionable data quality insights<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">.<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">W<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">i<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">th<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0improved\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">data<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0quality<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">,<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">the Fast Forecast Scan\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">provides you<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">, within\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">a few days,<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">\u00a0with data-backed insights on\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">the highest possible forecast accuracy that can be reached\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">and\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">i<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">denti<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">fies<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\">the main opportunities for improvement.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><a class=\"Hyperlink SCXW13943841 BCX8\" href=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/offering\/planning-services\/fast-forecast-scan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\" data-contrast=\"auto\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW13943841 BCX8\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Hyperlink\">Witness the transformative power of the Fast Scan through our on-demand demo.<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>You prefer to speak to one of our specialists? Please reach out to us and see how driver-based forecasting can be of added value to your organization: Contact <a href=\"mailto:erik.devos@eyeon.eu\">Erik de Vos<\/a>, <a href=\"mailto:willem.gerbecks@EyeOn.nl\">Willem Gerbecks<\/a>, or <a href=\"mailto:andre.vriens@eyeon.nl\">Andr\u00e9 Vriens<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/offering\/planning-services\/fast-forecast-scan\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-17619 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/With-support-from-EyeOn-we-built-a-tool-that-automatically-alerts-us-when-our-master-data-values-deviate-significantly-from-actual-performance-facilitating-a-data-driven-review-and-update-of-mast-1-300x113.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"913\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/With-support-from-EyeOn-we-built-a-tool-that-automatically-alerts-us-when-our-master-data-values-deviate-significantly-from-actual-performance-facilitating-a-data-driven-review-and-update-of-mast-1-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/eyeonplanning.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/With-support-from-EyeOn-we-built-a-tool-that-automatically-alerts-us-when-our-master-data-values-deviate-significantly-from-actual-performance-facilitating-a-data-driven-review-and-update-of-mast-1-768x288.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 913px) 100vw, 913px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018Driver-based forecasting\u2019 with machine learning Data is everywhere in today\u2019s <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13245,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[93,190,29,38],"class_list":["post-14736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-demand-planning","tag-driver-based-forecasting","tag-forecasting","tag-machine-learning"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>EyeOn<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Enhance chain decision-making with forecasting machine learning. 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